The Chainsmokers - Music & Markets - [Invest Like the Best, EP.430]
Summary
- Copyright enforcement looks too late for generative AI: Alex calls the training-data fight “a cat out of the bag,” while Drew compares it with labels resisting Napster instead of building Spotify. In Drew’s counterfactual, accepting digital music would have meant building Spotify and avoiding “an extra 30% to a DSP.” His call is to embrace the tools, shape what follows, and assume models will eventually do what artists fear, but may also enable “better art or different art.”
- Creative supply is already exploding from roughly 10,000 to 190,000 Spotify uploads each Friday, and Alex thinks it could reach a million within a few years. That means more “slop,” but also a larger premium on originality, identity and world-building: when anyone can generate a song, the defensible asset becomes what audiences uniquely believe about the artist—“being the most Chainsmokers possible.”
- Artistic product-market fit remains irreducibly uncertain. Drew considers “Don’t Lie” with Kim Petras a creative success even though fans and commercial metrics did not connect; “No Shade at Pity” was not a runaway either, yet completely met their standard for a Chainsmokers song. “Intentionality matters more than ever”: fans want to know that artists love what they created in a world of slop.
- Their founder filter mirrors their own start: back people who will pursue the same mission even if the current company fails. The Chainsmokers began with Drew about $150,000 in debt, Alex quitting his job, and a personalized-outreach machine that took them from zero to 30 Hype Machine number ones in roughly a year. “People grind to product-market fit”—the invisible work is repeated calls, relationship-building and strategy resets after the obvious plan stops working.
- Mantis emerged after years of meeting technology founders and discovering more shared operating DNA with them than with many musicians. Celebrity-investor skepticism created useful white space: the bar was low, expectations were hostile, and high-touch responsiveness could differentiate them. They began writing $25,000–$50,000 checks and now describe their desired role as “the sixth man on every championship team.”
- Music taught them to accept venture’s power law: a career may rest on a handful of enormous songs, just as a portfolio depends on a few extraordinary companies. Experience has shifted Mantis toward distinguishing genuine founder momentum from fundraising hysteria, and asking “What’s your DPI?” rather than celebrating marked-up IRR before liquidity exists.
- Their relationship strategy is operational, not ornamental: give someone 30–90 seconds of real attention, answer the quarterly update nobody else answers, and become the utility player a founder actually needs. Internally, however, they are undoing the cost of excessive control—Alex still reviews every credit-card statement and production budget, but both want to stop being the CEOs of The Chainsmokers and return to the work only they can do. As Alex puts it, “Chainsmokers is the sun”; a stronger music identity creates opportunities for everything else, while a stronger fund cannot necessarily rescue the music.
Deep dive
1. Fighting AI training looks like standing before a tsunami
Alex’s copyright conclusion is “a cat out of the bag.” After hearing a proposed business built around licensing and protecting rights, he saw the dependency immediately: everything hinged on government enforcement, “and by the way, it’s already too late.”
Drew’s framing is the Napster precedent: record labels resisted digital distribution instead of embracing it and building Spotify themselves. In his counterfactual, accepting the shift could have let them build Spotify and avoid “an extra thirty percent to a DSP”—a warning to harness an irreversible technology rather than pretend it can be stopped.
They expect models to acquire capabilities artists currently fear, but Drew’s response is possibility rather than denial: “Then we’re gonna be able to make better art or different art.” His DJ generation already endured claims that software-made music was not real, yet those tools still produced songs, shows and genuine euphoria or sadness.
2. Abundant tools make identity scarcer
Alex’s supply-side warning is stark: Spotify went from roughly 10,000 songs every Friday to 190,000, and he imagines that becoming a million within a few years. The immediate result is “just lots of slop” and a much harder path to breaking through.
Drew treats that democratization as net creative access. DAWs such as Ableton and Fruity Loops let people work without extraordinary studios; AI may similarly allow more people to express themselves and perform, just as the accessibility of DJing helped create a much larger, more enjoyable scene.
The unresolved question is who captures the upside. Alex hopes the tools do not merely advantage established artists, but believes brand, identity and “standing for something” become more important as volume rises. Brian Eno’s framing resonated with him: AI remains “still just a tool, for now at least.”
3. A song’s real product-market fit is emotional, not formulaic
Drew says the process keeps resetting despite years of hits: every album or batch of songs demands a rewritten method. The goal is to respect everything that shaped him while making a statement that feels new; if he could name the feeling directly, “I wouldn’t need to make music.”
Their partnership supplies the filter: Chainsmokers music is what both agree feels fun, tasteful and worth playing live. It is not either member alone, but “a reflection of our friendship” and of what they have become excited about as fans over roughly 20 years.
“No Shade at Pity” turned inspiration from Alex’s recent breakup into a New York spring day—winter ending, sidewalks overflowing, people becoming feral again. Alex supplied personal sadness while they and, Alex thinks, songwriter Emily debated verse length, wordiness and danceability until a private story became a scene anyone could inhabit.
The song was not a runaway metric success, yet Alex says it “hit the mark” as a Chainsmokers record on every level. Listeners continue discovering it months later, illustrating why a song can miss launch expectations but acquire meaning when a person’s later mood finally meets it.
4. Intentionality matters when good production is cheap
“Don’t Lie,” released with Kim Petras roughly six months earlier, captures the disconnect. Drew remains emphatic—“I did the goddamn thing on that”—about its writing, production and atmosphere, yet neither their fans nor the commercial market connected with it.
His honest non-answer preserves the uncertainty: perhaps the marketing failed, perhaps the song itself did, or perhaps it lacked enough of Alex and Drew’s essence. Alex translates that into a company question: What story are you telling, why should anyone care, and how are you showing that you care?
More equipment has not solved this. Alex sometimes walks into a studio containing 25 keyboards and feels the options hurt the experience; the unchanged guitar shows how constraint can still yield centuries of fresh expression. Their current move is to narrow back toward the Chainsmokers sound and audience.
Alex’s governing line is categorical: “Intentionality matters more than ever.” Projects such as Turnstile attract Drew because music, videos and rollout feel like one considered object—not because every artist should mimic Gen Z TikTok behavior that may work commercially but does not feel authentic to them.
5. World-building can outrun streaming scale
Drew groups Fred again.., Doechii and Charli XCX as artists who bring listeners into a world larger than an individual song. Their viral records are more nuanced and niche than the traditional pop hits of a decade ago, yet dance acts with seemingly emerging-level monthly listeners can now fill Madison Square Garden or festival-sized shows.
He defines world-building as an aesthetic, mood and attitude an audience can participate in. Some artists construct it through boards, branding and elaborate direction; others simply embody it. Alex’s compressed examples are “Travis Scott is rage”, while Zach Bryan’s no-frills consistency is itself a complete world.
The groundwork matters. Alex notes that Charli XCX spent around 15 years writing for hit artists, Fred worked behind major writers and performers, and Doechii publicly described doubling down after losing a job. That depth contrasts with labels buying a viral 15-second COVID-era clip and then asking, “What did we just buy?”
Patrick’s “heavy things” framing lands with Drew’s belief that “album is God.” Rather than something made, consumed and forgotten quickly, Drew wants 45 to 75 minutes inside an artist’s world—“I wanna put on the costume”—with the labor and coherence visible in the result.
6. Their creative itch began as dissatisfaction and discovery
Alex’s first language was visual rather than musical. He recorded Nike commercials onto VHS in the 1990s and 2000s, painted, followed the NBA and searched for a medium capable of reproducing the emotional force of those images.
After his father died, the search hardened into survival and proving people wrong. New York offered endless stimuli but also friends entering prestigious careers while he promoted nightlife; he describes the underlying engine less as a pristine vocation than “that paranoia deep within you” and a willingness to apply maximum pressure until an opportunity worked.
Drew grew up grateful for Maine but initially felt trapped by it. At 16, an exchange program in Argentina exposed him to David Guetta, Daft Punk and Trentemøller; those unfamiliar sounds felt like “I had never seen colors like that.” His continuing itch is the torturous pursuit of hearing something new.
Success complicates that pursuit. Drew once dismissed artists who seemed to remake the same song, then noticed that over 10–15 years they became the only owners of that sound. The Grateful Dead became his model for a repeatable experience with accumulating fans, raising the dilemma: innovate constantly or become unmistakably dependable.
7. Relationships compound through small acts of attention
Their accessibility begins with a genuine preference: they like throwing parties, choosing music and curating a fun time. Drew says that looking someone in the eye, listening and offering a drink for even 30–90 seconds can create “little bits of magic” that people pass onward.
Alex rejects a transactional reading. Whether someone is a CEO or an SDR, the invitation is the same if they bring good energy; it is not the Billy Madison strategy of apologizing because the person may later rescue you. “Life is so long,” and making others feel seen becomes meaningful in itself.
Hundreds of Vegas performances remain sustainable because each weekend brings people experiencing the show for the first time. Alex connects that energy to early radio supporters and to business itself: study people and relationships because “that’s fundamentally what business is.” The constraint now is time—calls being pushed from August into September genuinely bothers him.
8. Chainsmokers remains the sun of the enterprise
Drew says the organization is simplifying toward the only two pursuits likely to remain: music and venture. He sometimes regrets having both, yet cannot choose between them; the goal is to build processes aligned with who they naturally are instead of preserving every opportunity accumulated during their rise.
Alex’s capital-allocation metaphor is explicit: “Chainsmokers is the sun in our solar system.” Strong music throws more light on Mantis, their tequila company and other opportunities; a strong Mantis, by contrast, probably does not save a weakening music career.
They nevertheless built the act with unusual operating rigor. Alex still reviews every credit-card statement line by line, week by week, and every show’s production budget. That discipline helped leave them resilient when COVID was devastating for some artists—they could respond, “Let’s raise a fund.”
The cost was becoming CEOs instead of artists. Alex compares it with a successful founder who now does only HR and “doesn’t build shit anymore”; Drew’s lesson from portfolio companies is to remain the founder, product visionary or CTO if that is the unique contribution, and hire someone else to be CEO.
9. Mantis converted celebrity skepticism into positioning
From roughly 2015–2018, relationships with founders including Drew Houston, Brian Chesky and Michael Seibel exposed them to private technology investing. The initial appeal was simple—cool people on the cap table—but they soon recognized that their own growth-hacking and operational approach gave them more in common with tech founders than with many musicians.
Their early personal investments produced uneven lessons. Alex thought participating in Uber’s Series F meant getting in early and says he made only about $6,000; many consumer bets lost money. Poppi was a major exception because they saw it as reinventing the soda category through a blend of technology, forward-thinking messaging, marketing and distribution.
They began organizing Mantis in 2019, then COVID created time to raise it over Zoom while writing an album. When someone floated $100 million on an early partner call, Alex did not know whether that was large; it was. They spent the better part of the next three years doing 10 hours of calls a day and learning from contradictory investor advice until patterns emerged.
The fund announcement was met with hostility, not celebration. Alex saw both a hill and a market opening: people expected celebrity investors to be useless, making the bar low and the white space large. Answering quarterly updates—sometimes to founders shocked that anybody replied—became an early proof of seriousness.
10. Music’s power law became Mantis’s service model
Alex’s central transfer is comfort with losing. A music career may be built on a few giant songs while most releases fall short; venture similarly depends on a handful of extraordinary companies, without every unsuccessful investment proving the investor incompetent.
Drew compares the founder-investor relationship with artist and record label. Having seen labels want to help but not know how, Mantis aims to be the utility player: state its expertise honestly, make the introduction it can, find the recruiter it lacks, and visibly put effort behind each founder’s particular need.
Their work with Alok on “Jungle” shows collaboration’s friction. Alok supplied a topline they did not write—true for only about 5% of Chainsmokers songs—and they transformed it into a large “donk” record at 140 BPM, outside their core sound, after friends repeatedly confirmed the material worked.
The strategic benefit was larger than the track: Alok offered a route into Brazil, different production instincts and a distinct promotional world. Drew describes seeing him perform for two million people on a bus traveling through the streets for five hours at Carnival in Bahia; collaboration lets each artist borrow another market’s perspective without pretending the underlying creative struggle disappears.
11. Founder-market fit appears in the work nobody sees
Their own commitment was costly and concrete: Alex quit a comfortable job, Drew moved from Maine onto an ex-girlfriend’s couch carrying roughly $150,000 of debt, and both put every egg into the project. Failure could not remain an abstract inconvenience.
Their first distribution engine paired taste with exhaustive personalization. They found rising indie tracks on Hype Machine, contacted each artist for stems, made remixes, then contacted the individual college-age bloggers feeding the chart. Against generic label blasts, Alex’s funny personal emails created real connection; within about a year, they went from zero to 30 number ones.
When originals required radio, they repeated the system physically: a San Francisco show also meant morning meetings in San Jose and Oakland before performing, then flying to Chicago and starting again. A few extra spins and people rooting for them accumulated into reach. “People grind to product-market fit,” Drew says; the retrospective hit story conceals the calls, begging and constant strategy changes.
Their founder non-negotiable is someone who will pursue the idea no matter what, even by restarting from another angle. Domain scars beat trend-chasing: a Salesforce employee solving a personally experienced problem is more persuasive than someone declaring “AI’s hot” and choosing a company afterward.
12. Mantis now distinguishes signal from actual returns
Alex describes the firm’s desired position as “the sixth man on every championship team”—working beside the best founders and investors, absorbing how both operate, without treating partnership as passive following. Often the individual investor matters more than the fund’s brand.
Some opportunities arrive with founder “hysteria” and recognizable ingredients; others require going “out in the woods” around a hypothesis whose momentum will be harder to create. Alex sees more alchemy than science in the latter and tries to separate genuine founder-space fit from hype or the comfort of a prestigious firm making another round easier.
Mantis initially wrote $25,000–$50,000 checks simply to enter strong rounds and establish a reputation. Larger checks now require a different conversation, while experience has imposed more discipline around ownership and stage.
A Series A markup is not the finish line. Alex’s corrective is “What’s your DPI?”, not whether paper IRR looks attractive; liquidity may remain far away. His related mistake is over-analysis—getting trapped in minutiae and talking himself out of strong investments—so he now pushes the team toward simpler decision frames.
13. Expertise should sharpen taste without killing naïveté
Asked how a young musician identifies the next skill, Drew returns to his drum teacher’s phrase: music is “a never-ending ladder.” Yet a debut artist has a lifetime behind the first album and enough naïveté not to overthink it; their current challenge is preventing accumulated lessons from blocking heart and instinct.
Alex entered venture googling acronyms such as TAM and still asks people to “explain this to me like a golden retriever.” He considered learning code for technical fluency, but Cursor and vibe coding redirected him toward taste—the capability he already believes is strongest.
Skill still changed his art. Worried that a future child might ask him to play “Closer” and discover he could not, Alex began two-hour piano lessons five days a week and continued them; the practice gave him a better language for communicating musical ideas with Drew.
Venture requires preserving some irrational optimism. Radiant’s timeline included waiting seven years for a first test, prompting a “we can’t do this, but fuck it” reaction before an angel investment; Alex says it is now performing strongly. Drew adds that their current avoidance of CPG might have excluded Poppi, a 30X outcome—evidence that sophistication can also screen out the exception.
14. The closing kindnesses reveal the original fuel
Drew first recounts an act that initially felt unkind: after his father died, his sixth-grade adviser, Mrs. Park, told him he stood at a crossroads between using the pain to build a successful life and becoming completely derailed. “Which path is this leading me towards?” stayed in his mind through later decisions.
When Patrick follows up on Alex’s father’s death, Alex describes a dark period during his parents’ divorce, friends who supported him and the experience of having to become his own man without his father’s guidance. He calls it, strangely, one of the better things that happened to him.
Drew’s concrete answer is his mother buying him a drum kit at age five in a 130-year-old Maine farmhouse, then happily enduring years of noise while grading papers or making dinner. She later discouraged a college path that excluded music, protecting the thread that ultimately joined his interests in music and business.