David Einhorn pitches at Sohn Investment Conference 2026

Summary

• Einhorn breaks his own pattern — after three years pitching “European companies that none of you have ever heard of,” he brings five US companies in transition: Acadia, Centene, Fluor, Versant, and Victoria’s Secret. The market looks expensive, but “the investment opportunity in each instance is the gap between the current perception and the future business quality.”
• Acadia can more than double to ~$56 from ~$25. The behavioral-health operator came under pressure after a NYT investigation, a lost 2023 jury trial, and a DOJ review, but his research says length of stay is industry-in-line and “the problems are not pervasive.” The catalyst: the board fired the CEO in January and hired Debbie Osteen, its previous CEO, who tripled the stock in 2018–22; ramping new facilities from 20–50% occupancy toward 70–80% could add ~$200M to $609M EBITDA.
• Centene (CNC) is worth $85–102 vs $56 on $8.49 of normalized EPS at a “conservative” 10–12x. Adjusted pre-tax margins collapsed from 3.1–3.7% to under 1%, but states must pay actuarially sound Medicaid rates and average ACA-program prices are rising ~35% — repricing “should” normalize margins by 2028, with 2024 management targets implying over $11 of EPS.
• Fluor (FLR) at $115 in a few years: after its 2020 near-bankruptcy on lump-sum fixed-price projects, over 80% of backlog is now cost-plus, and it’s paid front-end work on ~$60B of future business vs a $26B backlog — data centers, LNG, nuclear, copper. It has a $4.1B enterprise value and a $1.4B buyback that will account for ~20% of shares; specialty AI-focused players often trade well above 20x EBIT.
• Versant (VSNT) is the “sexy” one — the NBCUniversal cable spin (CNBC, MS Now, Golf Channel) was dumped by recipients, with index funds adding technical selling pressure when its market cap was ~5% of Comcast’s. At 4.6x 2026-consensus P/E with a 19% last-year FCF yield, the melting-ice-cube objection gets his best line: “actually, they turn into a fair amount of fresh water” — over 60% of market cap in free cash flow in four years.
• Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) trades to the low $80s (+74%) if management hits its stated 10% margin — his base case — and more than doubles in the bull case. The “woke campaign of empowerment that the consumer found inauthentic” is being reversed; the fashion show is back, both VS and Pink are gaining share despite fewer promotions, and margins sit at barely half historical levels.

Deep dive

1. The frame — five transitions, starting with Acadia’s occupancy ramp

• Einhorn’s setup: while the US market “appears expensive,” he’s finding managements repositioning toward “more durable, more disciplined, and more cash generative growth” — the question is whether strategic change converts into “better visibility, better margins, and eventually a better multiple.”
• Acadia, the leading pure-play behavioral hospital and methadone-clinic operator (277 facilities, 12,500+ beds), peaked near $90 in 2022 before a NYT investigation alleging patients held beyond medical need, sexual-assault claims, and a DOJ review. His pushback: average length of stay is industry-in-line, medical experts call it “a reputable, responsible operator,” and — his joke — “aren’t most of us just a couple of ’true social’ posts away from needing Acadia’s help?”
• The self-inflicted damage: ~$2B of expansion since 2021, mired in cost overruns, leaving new facilities at 20–50% occupancy vs 70–80% seasoned. At ~$25 (8.3x EV/EBITDA), the January CEO firing and Debbie Osteen’s return is the catalyst; occupancy plus better reimbursement (rival UHS grew rates at double Acadia’s pace in 2025) could add $200M to $609M EBITDA — 10x gets ~$56.

2. Centene: “the giant survives and comes out stronger”

• Centene had its “worst year” in 2025 — adjusted pre-tax margins collapsed from a steady 3.1–3.7% (2016–24) to under 1% — but it insures 28 million people, “about 1 in 15,” and is “dramatically under earning across all major business lines.”
• The mechanism: COVID-era distortions gave way to pent-up care and drug inflation, compressing Medicaid medical margins from 12% to 5% by Q2 2025 — but states must pay actuarially sound rates over time, so low margins enable price increases. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s 2027 implementation “will mute the recovery somewhat,” with the lift by 2028.
• The ACA book reprices annually — average prices up ~35% this year, targeting 400bps of margin expansion — and Einhorn adds an AI kicker: claims processing is “well-suited to automate.” Normalized EPS of $8.49 at 10–12x gives $85–102 vs $56; 2024 targets imply over $11.

3. Fluor: a survivor leveraged to the capex boom

• Fluor “nearly went bankrupt” in 2020 on lump-sum projects taken on “right before inflation took off”; those legacy jobs are “finally” nearing completion and cost-plus is now over 80% of backlog.
• Investors “remain focused on the past” while Fluor is paid front-end work on ~$60B of future business vs a $26B backlog — data centers, pharma, gas power, LNG, nuclear, copper. Management projects EBITDA from $543M to $900M by 2029; last energy cycle it tripled.
• With a $4.1B EV and a $1.4B buyback (~20% of shares), a blended 14x EBIT gives $115 — construction-heavy peers get 11x, engineering-heavy 21x, and specialty AI-focused players often get multiples well above 20x.

4. Versant: the melting ice cube that makes fresh water

• “One is sexy and the other is not sexy. Both start with the ticker VS.” Versant — the Comcast cable spin holding CNBC, MS Now, and The Golf Channel, all top five in their genres — was “force sold by non-economic actors” at ~5% of Comcast’s cap. “Versant is super cheap and we find that extremely sexy.”
• The bear case, met head-on: revenue fell 5% and EBITDA 9% in 2025, but “melting ice cubes… actually, they turn into a fair amount of fresh water.” At 4.6x 2026-consensus P/E with a 19% last-year FCF yield, its focus on 60% live news and sports somewhat insulates it from streaming.
• Management aims to double digital (now 19% of revenue) to a third within three to five years, long-term 50/50; his conservative model generates over 60% of market cap in FCF over four years, leaving one turn of net leverage on $1.3B EBITDA.

5. Victoria’s Secret: leaning back into the “sexy DNA”

• The not-sexy pick is “the ultimate fighter”: prior management’s “woke campaign of empowerment that the consumer found inauthentic” got rid of the fashion show; the new CEO (September 2024) reinstated it and refreshed the team in spring 2025 — both VS and Pink are gaining share while pulling back promotions.
• Margins are “barely half of historical levels,” with a bigger inflection likely in 2027 plus a tariff refund coming. Management’s stated 10% margin is his base case — low $80s, ~74% upside; the bull case (11% margins, just under 5% growth) more than doubles the stock. His closing cartoon for value investors: “I don’t want to change. I want all of you to change.”