Summary

David Hunter remains very bullish: S&P 10,000, NASDAQ 36,000, Dow 70,000, Russell 4,000 and SMH 800—roughly 30–40% upside by his math. He says the 43-year secular bull became a 44-year bull in August and expects the final leg to be parabolic if his thesis is right.
He still expects a global bust, with the broad market potentially falling as much as 80%. His core reason is unprecedented debt and derivatives leverage; he says there is a very good chance the bust arrives next year, though the timing keeps getting extended.
Hunter is very bearish on oil: in Connor’s above-$90 scenario, he expects oil back into the 70s and 60s this year or in Q1, and into the 30s during the bust. He argues supply is larger than commonly assumed and demand falls as prices rise.
He believes bonds are near a double bottom and rates a double top versus 2007, with a major bond-market bull move possible over the next 12–18 months. He expects inflation and GDP eventually to roll over and the Fed to fall behind in easing.
He targets silver at 200 and gold at 7,000 over three to six months, while believing the recent lows near silver 55 and gold 4,000 may hold. He sees fearful, angry investors as potential fuel for the next move.
His main market-top signal is all-in sentiment: institutions remain cautiously invested, while debt delinquencies and pressure on lower-income consumers are already building. He also sees widespread legalized gambling as a late-cycle warning.
He sees an uphill midterm for Republicans but does not change his market target because of the election. Hunter claimed Mark Carney helped derail U.S.-Canada trade talks as part of a broader globalist agenda; Connor disagreed, saying capitalism and ordinary workers matter more and arguing Trump helped make Carney prime minister.

Deep dive

1. Hunter’s targets are higher, but the final leg remains conditional

Since the pair last spoke in May 2025, when the S&P was around 5,900 and Hunter’s target was 8,000, he has raised his targets to S&P 10,000, NASDAQ 36,000, Dow 70,000, Russell 4,000 and SMH 800. He says those targets imply roughly 30–40% further upside. The 43-year secular bull market became a 44-year bull in August, and he still expects AI to make new highs, with semiconductors having further room to run.

He was not surprised by the recent weakness: the NASDAQ had made a new high two days earlier, while the subsequent decline was only about 1.5%. He says the fearful reaction on X is itself evidence that sentiment is not yet at a top. A nearby gap could produce another roughly 1% decline, but he does not see a major top yet.

For the market itself, sentiment is his main indicator. Institutions have remained cautiously optimistic, moving from expectations of a return to the low 4,000s after the 3,500 low, then to 4,800, 5,500, 6,000 and eventually 8,000. He expects the final run to become parabolic if he is right: each leg has grown steeper, and ultimately rationale will follow the tape. His preferred ingredients are falling rates, rolling-over inflation, an improved Iran situation and sharply lower oil.

2. The eventual bust could be an 80% bear market

Hunter acknowledges that he has been accused, “rightfully so,” of kicking the can down the road as the cycle keeps stretching. Even so, he sees a very good chance of a global bust next year. He calls it a bear market rather than a normal pullback and says the broad market could fall as much as 80%, although he is uncertain about the exact magnitude. He compares that potential decline with the roughly 90% fall he recalled between 1929 and 1932.

His simple explanation is leverage. Debt is leverage on the economy; derivatives are leverage on the markets. He says both are at levels far beyond anything seen in 2008, not only in the United States but also in Japan and globally. A financial crisis involving bank failures and other strain could push the market down roughly 60%; adding derivatives could take it much lower. He says U.S. banks are less leveraged than in 2008–09, but global private debt and derivatives could still create a much broader crisis. He does not specifically expect a sovereign crisis.

Hunter also says recent market rotation has helped prevent overheating: AI, semiconductors and technology corrected while financials, industrials and healthcare strengthened. He views the regional-bank episode involving Silicon Valley Bank as isolated enough to resolve without broader damage, unlike the broader crisis he expects when the larger cycle turns.

On speculation, Connor listed day trading, zero-dated options, sports betting and prediction markets. Hunter agreed that legalized gambling everywhere resembles what he called the “Robert Baron era” leading into 1929 and treated it as a sign of a major top. He also warned that homeowners and stock-market investors who feel wealthy may have extended themselves; a rapid wealth unwind could leave them asking what they had done.

3. Hunter remains the oil bear

In Connor’s above-$90 oil scenario, Hunter expects prices to return to the 70s and then the 60s, perhaps this year or in the first quarter. He says oil could reach the 30s during the bust and believes the highs are likely in for quite some time. He points to U.S. production, oil moving out of the Gulf and the possibility that a resolved Iran situation would expose a surplus rather than a shortage.

He recalls being bearish during the Russia-Ukraine oil spike while experts called for $150 or $200 oil. He says crude briefly reached about $130, later touched roughly $120, and eventually fell below $80. His thesis is that there is more supply than commonly recognized and that demand falls more sharply when prices rise.

Connor raised the possibility that Russia is still producing roughly 10 million barrels per day despite sanctions. Hunter agreed that oil is fungible, recalling the 1970s Arab oil embargo: buyers and routes can change, but oil being produced has to go somewhere, even if some of the trade is not aboveboard.

4. Bonds may be near a turning point

With the 10-year yield above 5% and a new Fed having raised rates by 25 basis points, Hunter says he sees a double bottom in bonds—or a double top in 10-year rates—around the levels last seen in 2007. He believes a major bond-market bull move could occur over the next 12–18 months, despite consensus expectations for higher inflation, higher oil and several more rate hikes.

He defends Warsh’s hike, saying a quarter-point move will not change the economy and that the bond market, rather than the Fed, determines rates. He calls Warsh as qualified a Fed chair as the United States has had, including Volcker, and agrees with Warsh’s desire to change how the Fed communicates.

Hunter says FOMC members and Street economists often extrapolate current conditions and therefore miss turning points. Reshoring and AI have made manufacturing relatively strong—the latest ISM report helped push rates higher—but he says the consumer and much of the rest of the economy are less robust. He cites a family member paying $1,000 for heating oil, roughly twice last year’s cost. He expects inflation and GDP eventually to roll over and says the Fed could then find itself behind the eight ball in easing, though he says that turning point has not necessarily arrived yet.

5. Gold and silver targets remain aggressive

Hunter says he raised his silver target to 125 in January before silver moved from below 50 to roughly 122. During the rally, he called silver “up on stilts” and expected a correction, but anticipated one or two months rather than the eventual six-month decline to 55. He then raised the target to 180 in early February and 200 in May. His gold target rose to 6,800 in February and 7,000 in June.

He expects the current pullback to be short-lived and does not expect silver to fall much below 64. He sees the next move reaching the mid-70s and, over three to six months, says silver could reach 200 and gold 7,000. He believes the recent lows near silver 55 and gold 4,000 may hold, rather than stating that those lows are certain.

Hunter says many investors entered gold and silver after the January move, then “got their heads handed to them.” They are now angry, fearful and hearing calls for gold at 3,000–3,500 and silver at 50 or below. He views that pessimism as a potential setup for another steep rally.

6. Midterms, Carney and the disagreement with Connor

Hunter sees an uphill midterm election for Republicans. He points to affordability, higher oil and gasoline prices, and opposition within parts of the Republican base to Trump’s decision to enter Iran. He also warns that Democrats have discussed court-packing and ending the Electoral College, though he says he does not know whether those changes would actually occur.

Despite his political concerns, Hunter says elections typically do not create market tops, so the election does not change his 10,000 target. He expects markets to focus on rates, oil and earnings in the near term.

Hunter’s most contentious claim was about Canada. He said Carney was visited by Obama and a group he described as far-left but named uncertainly, and claimed that the plan behind the tariff confrontation predated Carney’s meeting with Trump. He said negotiators had been approaching a workable agreement before Carney came in and disrupted it. He further alleged that the broader left was aligned with Russia, China, Iran and North Korea as part of what he called a “new world order,” which he equated with a communist takeover.

Connor explicitly disagreed, saying he believes capitalism will prevail. He argued that Trump’s comments about Trudeau becoming a governor and Canada becoming the 51st state helped revive Canadian unity against the Conservatives and contributed to Carney becoming prime minister: Trudeau resigned in January 2025, and Carney won the Liberal leadership race in March. Hunter conceded that Trump had united Canadian voters against the Conservatives.

Connor closed by emphasizing that voters can remove politicians every four years and that hardworking people, rather than any single president or prime minister, are the foundation of long-term economic and market performance.

Verification Notes

The transcript’s “Robert Baron” wording and Hunter’s identification of the Obama-linked group are retained or softened because their exact identities are not resolved in the reference.

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