Jensen Huang says the AI doomers have it wrong

Summary

• The market misread Kimi exactly as it misread DeepSeek, Huang argues: chip stocks are down 18% in a month, but “free AI should be great for hardware, chips, data centers” — great open models drive more use, and “whenever there’s more use, you’ll have to sell a lot more NVIDIA computers.” He puts NVIDIA’s China sales at “approximately zero today” and has told investors to expect zero.
• No semiconductor bust “for a while” — “this time is different because this is not demand-driven… it’s industrial-driven.” The chip industry needs to be 5 to 10 times larger over the next ten years, which is why memory, storage, optics, packaging and TSMC chips are all short. A bubble “will come someday. It’s just not today” — “very unlikely in the next five years,” because physical constraints (chips, land, power, construction workers) delay the point where supply exceeds demand.
• The ROI question is answered: “we now know that AI is profitable” — coding agents are “incredibly profitable,” NVIDIA itself pays “hundreds of millions of dollars a year” for AI coding services, and “that flywheel has now started.” OpenAI and Anthropic will be “the most successful IPOs in human history”; the odds China runs U.S. companies off the road: “Zero possibility… bring it on.”
• Some AI doom claims are “complete nonsense” and doomers “make things up”: radiologists up ~20%, paralegals ~10%, manufacturing jobs ~50% — automation of tasks is increasing jobs. “AI is not going to destroy all of our jobs. Someone who uses AI is going to take our jobs.” Singularity and simulation talk is “science fiction… Hollywood”; “the closest thing to true AI is R2-D2 and C-3PO.”
• Policy call: don’t ban Chinese models, don’t over-correct. Backdoor fears are “a misconception” — open models run in harnesses inside secure sandboxes; open models are “important for national security” via “massively distributed, self diverse defense.” His fear is Washington will “over-correct” on made-up narratives, partly pushed by “companies [that] hope the government would be helpful in creating regulations” to their advantage. A government equity stake in NVIDIA? “It’s unnecessary” — “we paid $10 billion worth of taxes last year.”
• Whether China has caught up “doesn’t matter” — there’s no race with an endpoint, China manufactures “more AI researchers than the rest of the world combined,” and holding it back is “ill-conceived.” The only way the U.S. loses is by failing to apply the technology, as it applied every prior industrial revolution.
• Robots and agents are the next demand wave: the ChatGPT moment for robots “has already arrived,” usefulness within 3-4 years “would not surprise” him, and a future of “100 billion, a trillion agents running all the time” — agents that use computers constantly — is why compute demand grows tremendously from today’s maybe ~100M simultaneous human users.

Deep dive

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