We are entering a SUPERCYCLE | Market Bubble #18

Summary

• The hosts replayed a 12:53 p.m. Robinhood call saying traditional-company crypto integrations lag because “the suits don’t see the data until late.” HOOD reportedly moved from roughly $111 premarket to about $124, with the hosts citing a 15%-17% daily gain on a roughly $100B company. The thesis was that Robinhood Chain revenue would not appear in reports until November 10: the chain was said to make up to $4M a day against roughly $4.5B of annual company revenue.
• The broader edge is crypto-native visibility into on-chain activity before it reaches traditional models. The hosts cited $34B in cumulative Robinhood Chain DEX volume, 12M addresses, recent $1.5B daily DEX volume and 190-plus tokenized stocks. They compared HOOD with Ansem’s earlier Coinbase thesis and discussed a possible retail/institutional “supercycle.”
• Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev was quoted saying, “We’re at the beginning of a supercycle.” Ansem’s supporting thesis was that institutions now have ETFs, RWAs, tokenized stocks, stablecoins and regulatory progress, while retail onboarding has improved through Unibot, Friend.tech, Privy, Apple Pay and Gmail integrations.
• The stated core portfolio is Bitcoin, Zcash, PUMP, HOOD, Solana and Hyperliquid, with roughly 80% initially described as evenly distributed across those assets and the remainder reserved for higher-risk trades. Ansem said to keep safer assets as the majority and never full-port a $100,000 market-cap coin.
• UNIPCS, known as Bonk Guy, was presented as the on-chain standout: roughly $12M up over 30 days and $5M over 24 hours on FOMO, with public positions in PONZ, USELESS, MARS and Base Cat. The hosts cited post-tweet gains of about 42%, 52%, 61% and 63%, while emphasizing that these were no longer ultra-low-cap coins.
• Ansem said he anticipated Kraken becoming Hyperliquid’s compliant HIP-3 provider, based on Kraken’s NinjaTrader and Bitnomial acquisitions and its stated FCM, DCM and DCO licenses. His framing was that centralized exchanges and decentralized perp venues can combine regulatory infrastructure with crypto-native technology.
• Will Clemente argued that Bitcoin bottoms through seller exhaustion rather than a new catalyst. He cited quantum risk, DATs and relative underperformance as largely priced in, then presented financial repression as a possible macro regime favoring hard assets. He described ZEC as Bitcoin beta plus a quantum hedge and said his portfolio was roughly 65% BTC, with ZEC under one-tenth of that exposure.
• The guest segments covered AI creation and Net Net Capital. Tyler Bernabe/JBoog Creative described AI as a tool that lets him realize ideas across new mediums; Net Net Capital described a treasury model built around trading revenue, RWAs and games, with its treasury said to have grown from roughly $600,000 to $11M in about a month. The hosts repeatedly framed product integration as more important than token listings.

Deep dive

1. The Robinhood call and the delayed-revenue thesis

The hosts replayed a 12:53 p.m. post from the previous day saying that traditional companies lag when adding crypto integrations because “the suits don’t see the data until late.” The post described Robinhood as a chart coiling off the bottom, with a new Layer 2 revenue line and a target of “all-time highs plus 50% in Q4.”

The transcript does not cleanly establish whether Banks or Ansem authored the quoted post: Banks reads it as “I said,” while Ansem is repeatedly credited with the call. The hosts said the stock did not break the cited low, closed around $106, traded near $109 after-hours, reached roughly $111-$112 premarket and later traded around $124. They cited a daily move of roughly 15%-17% and about $15B in added market capitalization.

Their mechanism was that Robinhood Chain activity is visible to crypto traders before it appears in traditional earnings models. They cited peak chain revenue of about $4M per day, or more than $1B annualized, against roughly $4.5B of annual company revenue. Ansem said the revenue would not be reported until November 10. Additional figures cited were $34B in cumulative DEX volume, 12M addresses, recent daily DEX volume of $1.5B and more than 190 tokenized stocks.

The comparison was Coinbase early in the previous cycle: a listed company providing direct exposure to growing crypto activity. The hosts described Robinhood as a similar TradFi wrapper with existing stock distribution, crypto expansion, prediction markets and an institutional reputation that may appeal to investors unwilling to buy individual tokens.

2. UniPCS and the social-trading edge

Ansem described @UNIPCS, known as Bonk Guy, as a trader who publicly shared large entries and P&L throughout the previous cycle. He credited him with roughly $10M or more of unrealized profit on BONK, a few million on WIF from below a $10M market cap, and strong trades in Farcoin, GOAT and other on-chain assets. He also said UNIPCS gave back part of his gains after staying bullish and carrying leverage into the market’s “10/10” liquidation.

The current scoreboard was presented as roughly $5M up in 24 hours, $12M in 30 days and number one on FOMO’s leaderboard by a wide margin. The hosts cited about 10,000% on PONZ, 250% on USELESS, 172% on MARS and 117% on Base Cat, with the positions described as seven-figure or multi-seven-figure holdings.

They then reviewed a post containing PONZ, USELESS, MARS and BCAT. The hosts cited gains since the post of approximately 42%, 52%, 61% and 63%, respectively. They emphasized that these were not tiny coins: Base Cat was cited around $55M, MARS around $100M, USELESS around $185M and PONZ around $600M. Ansem’s explanation was that the multi-chain list deliberately gave each chain a leader for its own capital base.

The social-trading thesis was that on-chain positions are immediately visible, while traditional platforms require users to opt into sharing, face KYC constraints and deal with regulatory complications. Bonk Guy was said to have about 260,000 followers on X and nearly half a million followers locally on FOMO. Will Clemente later pushed back that visible wallets can create a reflexive standoff: traders may avoid selling because they do not want to trigger other observers, producing sharp rises and equally sharp unwinds.

3. Portfolio construction, Robinhood’s social question and momentum

Banks described roughly 80% of his crypto portfolio as spread fairly evenly across Bitcoin, Zcash, PUMP, Robinhood, Solana and Hyperliquid. Ansem characterized the mix as exposure to Bitcoin and Zcash, perps through HYPE, on-chain activity and social trading through PUMP, and TradFi through HOOD.

Banks questioned whether Robinhood would ever commit fully to social trading. He contrasted Robinhood’s institutional, KYC-heavy product with FOMO’s social-media-first design and argued that the eventual winner may need to make social trading the entire product. Ansem agreed that on-chain products have a current advantage but questioned whether Robinhood needs to push hard into the app layer while its infrastructure business is already generating substantial revenue.

Ansem’s risk rule was to keep roughly 70% in safer assets and 30% in more speculative positions, never full-porting a $100,000 market-cap coin. His warning was that a trader can lose the entire portfolio on a micro-cap and then miss the rest of a bull market.

4. Kraken, Saylor and the other market calls

Ansem said he anticipated Kraken becoming the first compliant HIP-3 deployer for Hyperliquid after seeing speculation from Shondaa and Devon S. He attributed Kraken’s regulatory position to its acquisitions of NinjaTrader and Bitnomial, which he said supplied the needed FCM, DCM and DCO licenses. He described the expected combination of Hyperliquid’s technical work and Kraken’s regulatory infrastructure as a major win for crypto.

On Michael Saylor, Ansem rejected the idea that Saylor was simply the worst trader on-chain. He said Saylor had been forced to sell Bitcoin to meet obligations connected to preferred stock and now had roughly 18 months or more of runway. He still criticized the execution for repeatedly appearing to buy near weekly highs, while Banks suggested that public-company approvals and trading processes might explain the timing.

Banks described Grok Bot as a workflow wrapper that gives each chat its own computer and lets users connect Slack, Telegram and other applications. He had not fully switched to it but expected it could become his main tool. Ansem had not yet tried it.

5. TJR, Frank and responsibility in meme markets

The hosts discussed TJR reviving an old token after being mocked while drunk at a wedding. Ansem said it rose to about $40M and that TJR claimed he had neither bought nor sold, with the supply in his wallet having been sent to him. Banks said TJR had not sold from his main publicly visible holdings; Ansem acknowledged uncertainty about possible side-wallet activity.

Frank DeGods reportedly lost about $30,000 after buying the token and criticized TJR. Ansem rejected the description of this as “dumping on fans,” arguing that Frank was a sophisticated trader who knowingly bought a highly risky asset. Banks said Frank is unusually explicit that he can sell whenever he wants and that copy-traders accept that risk.

Both hosts rejected the strongest version of a claim that rugging and scamming had become socially acceptable, while agreeing that crypto has become more openly degenerate. Their conclusion was that financial freedom requires individual responsibility. Ansem added that TJR had previously declined, after a conversation with him, to pump and later rug a token that had been sent to him, yet still received hostility from Crypto Twitter.

6. Vlad’s supercycle thesis and onboarding

Banks quoted Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev saying, “We’re at the beginning of a supercycle,” and discussing a blockchain with stock tokens as a primitive. The hosts connected this to Robinhood’s stated goal of broadening access to stocks, commodities and other markets globally.

Ansem’s institutional case included tokenized stocks, RWAs, stablecoins, regulatory work around the CLARITY Act and the fact that crypto ETFs are now operating rather than merely launching. His retail case was a timeline of reduced onboarding friction: Unibot made one-click Telegram trading easier in 2023; Friend.tech and Privy simplified wallet creation; Apple Pay and Gmail integrations now make it easier for new users to enter crypto and trade on-chain without waiting for a centralized-exchange listing.

He cited roughly 100,000 daily actives on FOMO and strong mobile activity for Pump.fun, arguing that greater retail and institutional participation could raise the ceiling for the entire market.

7. The Kennel Trader playbook

Banks explained that Kennel Trader built a 2020-2021 portfolio of dog and cat coins, ignoring majors and placing small amounts into many names through a detailed spreadsheet. The production team adapted the idea into a screen for coins that reach roughly $10M in market capitalization.

The chart discussed on air showed a 12.7x result for putting $1,000 into qualifying dog and cat runners, with a hypothetical $8.5M outcome if every exit were timed at the top. The hosts acknowledged that perfect exits are unrealistic but argued that the $10M threshold is manageable and filters out much of the noise from the roughly 30,000-plus daily launches.

Ansem’s pattern was: an initial hype spike, consolidation, a growing holder base, then higher lows and a break above the first major high. He cited Artificial Inu moving from roughly $5M-$15M, breaking a prior high near $20M and reaching about $270M-$300M. He said CASH and ANOM looked similar and framed the approach as momentum trading rather than trying to bottom-tick or top-tick.

8. AI creation and the death of the NPC

Tyler Bernabe, known as JBoog Creative, said he is based in Honolulu and has worked full-time as an AI creator for more than four years. He cited work with Ne-Yo and Will Smith, a music video for Raekwon and a 2024 Coachella main-stage appearance alongside Grimes.

He described starting with dance videography and discovering WarpFusion after someone asked permission to animate one of his videos. The tool required a Google Colab notebook and Python code, and its early output was flickery by current standards, but it convinced him to learn the medium.

Bernabe argued that complaints are louder than creation and that “slop” existed long before AI. His test is whether a work creates a feeling, not how it was made. Banks added the example of an authentic Monet being posted as AI-generated and receiving hostile responses, which they treated as evidence that much of the objection is tribal rather than aesthetic.

On games, Bernabe predicted that AI would enter Unreal Engine development within a few years and become a net benefit for players. Banks imagined a GTA-style Miami populated by a small number of human players and millions of AI agents with personalities and relationships. Bernabe called this “the death of the NPC.” They also discussed the unsettling possibility of children forming relationships with undisclosed AI characters in games.

9. Net Net Capital and treasury-backed games

Al Dunlap described Net Net Capital as an improvement on earlier treasury and M3M3-style models. The central idea is to make trading, rather than only token issuance, a revenue engine for the treasury. Banks summarized three revenue sources as trading taxes, bonds that add RWAs or stocks to the treasury, and revenue from games.

Ansem said staking emissions were roughly 1.2% but only paid when fully diluted valuation was at least 1.75 times treasury value. Dunlap said the contract was immutable, buybacks were built in and holders could redeem backing if the token price fell to the treasury value. The stated objective was to make treasury growth outpace inflation.

The treasury was described as having grown from roughly $600,000 when Ansem first noticed it to about $11M roughly a month later, with Banks saying it had recently been adding around $1M per day.

The Boardroom, a PvP split-or-steal game, was said to have generated $250,000 of Microsoft stock purchases, 900 wallets and 5,500 sessions in its first 15 hours, with a jackpot near $30,000. A prior Subway Surfers-style game opened a 100x NVIDIA long and used collected coins to increase margin; the hosts said Robinhood Chain gas doubled after it launched.

The comparison with DeFi Kingdoms was that the game itself was enjoyable, but its inflationary JEWEL token eventually collapsed. Net Net’s thesis is that games can instead be built around RWAs and treasury growth. The team also discussed an MMORPG, NFT “loot cases,” two collections that had reportedly trended number one on OpenSea and one NFT sale at $50,000.

10. Integration over listings

Dunlap argued that crypto teams focus too much on whether Coinbase, FTX or Robinhood will list their token. His preferred question is whether a product can be integrated into a major platform. In his vision, users eventually contribute revenue to the treasury through games without even knowing what NET is.

Banks described recruiting traditional game designers by offering crypto’s token-holder community as an initial distribution channel. He said the team could ship products quickly with AI tooling and that token holders could provide an initial player base. Ansem compared the opportunity to building an Xbox Live-style trading layer and said such a platform could be extremely valuable.

The hosts also connected this to DeFi summer: stablecoins, RWAs and tokenized stocks could create a new wave of on-chain applications, while AI tooling lowers the cost and time required for developers to build them.

11. Will Clemente: Bitcoin, financial repression and Zcash

Will Clemente described moving from Warren Buffett-style discounted-cash-flow investing into Bitcoin after COVID, later co-founding Reflexivity Research with Anthony Pompliano. He said the firm was acquired by DeFi Technologies in an all-stock deal that reached a low-eight-figure value at its peak. At 24, he now manages his own portfolio.

He said Bitcoin bear markets usually bottom when sellers run out rather than when a new catalyst appears. His three overhangs were quantum risk, digital-asset treasuries and Bitcoin’s relative underperformance. He argued that momentum sellers had already rotated out months earlier, that quantum risk would be priced before it was fully resolved and that Bitcoin being roughly 50% below its dollar high and 70% below its gold-denominated high represented meaningful discounting.

Clemente’s broader macro thesis was financial repression. He cited more than $40T of US debt, rising long-term borrowing costs and yen-related Treasury-market risks. He argued that policymakers may hold rates below inflation and encourage assets such as Bitcoin and gold while discouraging escape from government debt. He cited Executive Order 6102 and postwar UK restrictions as historical examples, reporting these as his framing.

He also argued that stablecoins could let the government channel more demand into T-bills and that this helps explain support for the CLARITY Act. His explicitly speculative “tinfoil-hat” idea was that the US may prefer Bitcoin to remain within US jurisdiction, even if it does not directly hold all of it.

For Zcash, Clemente said his portfolio was roughly 65% BTC, with ZEC less than one-tenth of that amount. He described ZEC as Bitcoin beta plus a hedge against quantum concerns and said ZEC/BTC could benefit if the “1% of BTC” meme develops. He also said the rise of socialism could be bullish for both BTC and ZEC, while Banks agreed that hard assets have historically outperformed cash over long periods.

12. The closing allocation

The hosts ended by repeating a relatively simple allocation framework: Bitcoin, Zcash, PUMP, Solana, HOOD and Hyperliquid as the main positions, with a smaller allocation for speculative trades. They acknowledged that crypto can still experience a 30% down day and that volatility is both the primary risk and the source of opportunity.