Summary

Jonah’s zone analysis, Avi’s plan: Bitcoin’s real demand zone is 74–88K, derived by stripping out the DAT-era “inorganic” price action above 105K and anchoring on where buyers stepped in pre-Trump, pre-DAT. With spot at ~85K — the very top of that zone — Avi wants to sell above it and accumulate toward 74–80: “if we’re at $75,000 per Bitcoin on December 30th, I’m buying that.”
The near-term tape is broken: a nearly 20% bounce off the lows “didn’t really catalyze any upwards momentum, which just tells me that right now people are sort of tapped out.” Avi says Saylor bought a billion dollars of Bitcoin without moving price; Jonah says Glassnode old-supply selling has doubled-to-tripled since Thanksgiving in what he calls a capitulatory moment. December mechanics — losers with no bullets, winners protecting bonuses — plus tax-loss selling below the 94K yearly open argue for another 12–16% down in BTC, 25–30% in alts into year-end.
Avi declares the four-year cycle dead: Bitcoin’s yearly return pattern (three green years, one nuke) is broken with 2025 down 4% YTD. The replacement regime is “a 20-year grind higher” — smaller percentage returns that still outperform SPY, less parabolic rallies, less painful selloffs — and a January re-engagement bid when traders “have to go hunt food again… eat what they kill” and Bitcoin is one of the few defensible stories that hasn’t mooned.
Avi’s tentative M2 explanation: the recent global M2 leg-up may be Eastern (Chinese) printing, and he thinks it’s a little harder for Chinese people to invest in Bitcoin — so the debasement hedge flows into gold and silver instead (silver at all-time highs; an ounce of silver equals a barrel of oil for the first time since 1982). Avi’s kicker: Western stimulus is coming, because AI mints “far more small losers than big winners” and deteriorating median family wealth forces political response — checks, price controls, or limits on AI companies.
No catalyst is needed — Jonah’s rebuttal to his fired ex-DRW employee’s dictum that crypto needs one. “Crypto is legal now… Bitcoin is money,” and the post-FTX run from 15K to 30K had no catalyst at all: “the catalyst was there was nobody left selling.” Jonah says he is not waiting for news; he is “solely waiting for selling to slow down.”
The alt complex verdict: liquid venture no longer reliably delivers returns — the era when a launched product that did not rug or scam investors had roughly a 90% hit rate is over, only Hyperliquid (“a product, not just a dream”) has worked this cycle, and Jonah thinks ETH is still ~60% too high despite being down ~50% off the highs and declining since August 18. No altcoins until Bitcoin re-enters a bull market — “it’s firmly in a bear market right now.”
On owning losses: Avi is down on Syrup after being up; listeners who bought it at the highs are down ~50%. They invoke Federer — 80% of matches won on just 54% of points. Jonah’s ledger: a handful of monster wins (GBTC in late ‘22, ETH sub-$100, SOL at $30) “have funded dozens of terrible ideas,” and the skill is keeping it that way.

Deep dive

1. Nobody has bullets: the December tape is broken

Avi’s tax-loss framework set the whole month up: Bitcoin opened the year at ~94,000, so that level helped determine whether year-end flows would be forward selling or relief. “We got like right up to that $94,000 level and sold off” — and Avi thinks that rejection, with Saylor buying a billion dollars of Bitcoin and not moving the price while OG wallets keep offloading below 100K, caused a decent amount of panic.
The technical tell he hates most: after two years of the weekly uptrend absorbing 25–30% pullbacks, this one went down 36%, and the near-20% bounce off the lows “didn’t really catalyze any upwards momentum, which just tells me that right now people are sort of tapped out.”
The seasonal mechanics, per Avi: traders with bad years “don’t have bullets,” and traders with good years “are not trying to lay it all on the line two weeks before their bonus gets locked.” Jonah’s one-line endorsement: “basically nobody’s taking risks.” Avi’s downside case: another 12–16% off BTC, 25–30% off alts.

2. Strip out the DAT bid and fair value is 74–88K

Jonah’s first-principles zone construction: the 70→105 run was real (election, Trump), but everything above 105 was DAT flows pulled forward — “inorganic.” So real demand sits between the post-Trump profit-taking low and the pre-DAT top: roughly 74 to 88, with spot at 85 “right at the top of what you can make a case for as being the demand zone.” Avi’s plan: sell above it, buy from 80 down to 74 — “if we’re at $75,000 per Bitcoin on December 30th, I’m buying that.”
ETH is the same story amplified: the 2600→48 run is “the Tom Lee special,” and everything since is “the Tom Lee hangover” — down ~50% off the highs and declining since August 18, “back to being haters of this asset.”
Jonah goes further: ETH is “probably 60% too high… this diseased radioactive test tube vial.” He cites Kyle Sani’s line that the ETH team has “no urgency, which makes it uninvestable” — yet concedes first-mover advantage means that after another 50–70% pile-drive, ETH may be the token that grinds back as TradFi adopts ETH-based products.
The year-end nuke scenario as opportunity: tax selling could print Solana at 75 and ETH at 22 — “if we get there, that’s probably a buy for these three.”

3. The four-year cycle is dead — and January brings the buyers back

Jonah’s returns-by-year table: bunches of three green years then a nuke — 2011–13 (+1500%, +300%, +5500%) then −60%; 2015–17 (+35%, +124%, ~+1400%) then −75%; 2019–21 (+100%, +300%, +60%) then −65% in the FTX/Luna year; 2023–24 (+155%, +121%). 2025: down 4% YTD. Avi says, “We’ve broken a pattern… It’s over. It’s done and we need to move on.”
The bull case at the zone: 75K is a 40% drawdown from the 125K top, back to pre-Trump, pre-DAT levels — cheap enough that macro thinkers buy the dedollarization and “profligate fiscal irresponsibility” story at levels that predate when Bitcoin was legal.
January mechanics, per Jonah: traders exit P&L-protection mode and “have to go hunt food again… find trades and eat what they kill” — and Bitcoin is one of the few defensible stories that hasn’t already mooned in 2025. His actionable year-end move: harvest altcoin losses now and roll proceeds into BTC, since alt carnage itself is weighing on Bitcoin.

4. Liquid venture no longer guarantees returns; equities aren’t easier, they just go up

The altcoin epitaph: for years, launching a crypto product that did not rug-pull or scam investors had a ~90% hit rate for extracting money — “there was nowhere for that number to go other than down.” Jonah’s autopsy of “liquid venture”: the underlying is “mostly shitty companies that will never pay a dime back to their investors,” and retail is finally rinsed out of spray-and-pray horse-picking. What actually worked this cycle? “Hyperliquid. That’s kind of it… it’s a product, not just a dream.”
Avi’s caution on the equity migration: “equities are not easier to trade than crypto — equities just tend to go up,” because increased monetary supply lifts anything well-managed with a real product. He flags a refinement (likely Feow’s): the quality of QE now matters more than its quantity. The edge is picking a sector that grows over 3–5 years, buying its top names, and avoiding dilution machines.
Why he’s bearish crypto but not markets: “Nobody’s tax loss harvesting NASDAQ.” His own book proves it — Tesla up ~20% from a ~400 entry, Robinhood back to 117 after he rode a 21% gain from 114 without taking profits (“that was sad”).

5. Eastern M2 vs Western M2 — why gold rips while Bitcoin doesn’t

Avi’s tentative explanation of the M2 disconnect (from tweets he flags as not-yet-verified): the latest global M2 leg may be China’s printing through a rough patch, and “it’s a little harder for Chinese people to invest in Bitcoin than it is for us in the west.” So it’s “a tale of two cities”: Eastern M2 rallying, Western M2 stagnant — and the debasement hedge gets expressed in gold and silver, not BTC.
The confirming extremes: silver reclaimed all-time highs, and an ounce of silver is worth a barrel of oil for the first time since 1982. Avi’s regime observation: the Ukraine war flipped gold “from being a risk-off asset to a risk-on debasement hedge” — “I kind of missed this because of my old man trad brain.”
Avi’s owned fumble: he was long gold and silver miners (GDX ~45, maybe 50), then after gold’s 10% liquidation candle off 4,400 ended up on the sidelines while everything reclaimed highs. “You sell something and it goes down, so you’re right, and then it goes back up to where you sold it and you just want to shoot yourself in the face… I can’t buy it. It’s a scam now.”
The read-through, per Avi: precious metals bid appears to be inflation-hedging rather than war-hedging — which means equities, which also outpace inflation, keep working too.

6. Stimulus is coming west — buy the laggard, not the winners

Avi’s macro chain: AI creates big winners and “far more small losers minted than big winners,” so median family finances deteriorate over the next two to three years, and that gets met with political repercussions — direct-to-consumer stimulus that “may not be checks”: price controls, limits on AI companies.
The portfolio conclusion: forced to concentrate, “would I rather buy Google stock on the highs… or Bitcoin in your demand zone? Frankly, I’d rather buy Bitcoin in the demand zone.” SPY is fine as a diversified bet, but he won’t chase single-name AI winners or gold/silver at highs — and having watched crypto narratives for a decade-plus, “I don’t see why the AI narrative would be any different. We’re going to get some retracements.”

7. No catalyst needed — the catalyst is sellers running out

The debate premise comes from a guy Jonah fired at DRW (“a total jackass… also really ugly and stupid” — “you really hate this guy”) who said crypto needs a catalyst to exit a slump. Jonah’s rebuttal: that’s an outdated, niche-asset mentality. “Crypto is legal now… Bitcoin is money” — a generational wealth transfer from no-coiners to coiners, capital controls rising east and west, DeFi replacing back office. The trade-off: returns will be smaller but still beat SPY; it’s “a game of patience,” and listeners tuning in on Monday, December 15th “will be rewarded.”
Jonah’s evidence for the same conclusion: a Glassnode old-supply chart (via the CryptoCondom account) shows dormant-coin selling doubling and tripling since Thanksgiving — “sort of like a capitulatory moment.” Until it flips, he’s nervous; he thinks it flips by year-end. “What am I waiting for? I’m just solely waiting for selling to slow down.”
The historical proof: post-FTX, 15K to 30K had no news. “The catalyst was very simple. The catalyst was there was nobody left selling.”

8. Owning your L’s: Federer won 54% of the points

Responding to criticism that they don’t own losses on the pod: Avi is now down on Syrup after being up, and if you bought it on their thesis at the highs you’re down 50%. The thesis itself — money-making, growing financial-app tokens do well over 2–3 years — stands, but “we’re wrong all the time in terms of timing.” The move now: tax-loss harvest Aerodrome and Syrup with a plan to rebuy when Bitcoin starts to rally.
Avi’s framing via Federer’s commencement speech: he won 80% of his matches but only 54% of all points — consistency plus “keep your wins big and your losses small” means a 50-50 hit rate can compound into greatness. Jonah’s refinement: unlike tennis, trades aren’t equal-sized — “making 10 bucks is very different than making $10 million.”
Jonah’s ledger, told straight: the monster wins — ETH sub-$100, Bitcoin during COVID, GBTC in late ‘22/early ‘23 (“that actually might be the best trade of my life”), Solana at $30 after hate-tweeting it at 20 — “have funded dozens of terrible ideas” like Launchcoin, Syrup, Aerodrome. Losses are signal, not shame: a few failed altcoin bets told him the altcoin market was toast before sidelined observers knew.
Avi’s closing discipline: “take a loss, learn a lesson, move on” — and don’t obsess, which is another reason to keep losses small. “Some people are not emotionally stable enough to trade.” The pod’s job is the weekly markets call — idea generation; “the real work happens after.”

Market Overview — December 16, 2025 Vol. 80: I Went on 大内密谈 to Talk AI with 相爷