Picking Winners

Bitcoin’s decisive levels are $70,000 for renewed animal spirits and $55,000 for forced liquidation, with the territory between them still a punishing range. Avi no longer sees $52,000 as likely in the current macro environment, but he highlighted a bullish tell: BTC holding $67,000-$68,000 while funding stays flat and traders keep shorting the range high. “The world changes if Bitcoin gets above 70k.”

The latest rally looked macro-driven rather than crypto-specific, weakening the case for chasing it. CPI came in slightly cooler than expected and lifted Bitcoin alongside equities, while stablecoin balances and near-term ETF flows remained subdued. Buying $55,000-$57,000 was a six-month thesis, not a promise that BTC would never revisit those prices.

ETF demand has been historic, but Jonah’s mid-curve view is that Bitcoin ETF inflows may already be around “inning five or six,” not inning one. IBIT gathered $18 billion in 49 days and FBTC $10 billion in 77 days, versus 817 days for GLD to reach $10 billion. Jonah estimated perhaps $50-$75 billion of additional inflows and guessed that AUM may peak around $100 billion; Avi called the near-end view a spicy take and took the other side. Jonah’s counterexample was Wisconsin’s disclosed $160 million position: a few basis points from pension systems could mean institutional adoption is only beginning.

The preferred portfolio is smaller, more narrative-driven, and willing to pair winners against tokens without a narrative or with substantial supply unlocks. Avi highlighted NEAR, AR and Livepeer while arguing Blur, Chainlink, Filecoin, FLOW and MATIC lacked comparable flows; his clean expression was “short SUI and long AR” for several months. “This is a time to consolidate the portfolio” because dispersion and supply unlocks can keep broad alt exposure bleeding.

Jonah cut roughly 75% of his BODEN position because a meme without fresh buyers has no earnings report to rescue it. He retained some upside for an election-driven move but saw weakening odds that Donald Trump or Joe Rogan would champion it. Avi asked whether holders might remain diamond-handed into the election; Jonah said there was potentially another 10x, perhaps 5x from the roughly $150 million market cap after the move. The investor test is both catalysts and holder quality: “How paper-handed or diamond-handed is the current participant base?”

The May 23 ETH ETF decision offered a conditional event trade rather than a blind pre-position. If denial reused Bitcoin’s market-manipulation and spot/futures-correlation rationale without calling ETH a security, Avi expected an eventual approval path and favored buying a headline dip—especially ETHE, whose discount was cited at 24%-25%. A security- or staking-based denial would be much more bearish and could inform how markets price Solana, Lido and Eigen-related assets.

GME and AMC showed that retail still has substantial gambling capacity, but that is not automatically fresh capital for a Bitcoin breakout. Jonah saw the 100%-150% moves as evidence that sidelined retail money will mobilize when given a leader; Avi refused the trade because he had no edge in Roaring Kitty or Reddit. Ansem’s ability to reverse BODEN sentiment showed the same reflex inside crypto, yet “you need greater fools, you need fresh capital” to reach something like $100,000 BTC.

🔗 Original source & video: Picking Winners: Time To Be Bullish? | 1000x