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MARKET UPDATE: Hot Payrolls, Hotter Memecoins, And Se From FOMO Talks The Future Of Trading
Crypto is rallying on debasement, social trading, and RWA theses, while FOMO’s on-chain HOOD trade suggests attention can precede revenue recognition. FOMO’s 5–10% daily growth and $4 million creator payouts support an organic network thesis, but 94.4% of users lost money and scale remains unproven; monitor Bitcoin’s six-month-to-one-year catalyst and whether meme markets get solved.
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- Avi opens with a hot jobs report (unemployment 4.1%) that has traders selling gold and sweating a September Fed hike — but argues the macro noise “kind of means nothing” because genuinely new money is flowing into crypto for multiple distinct reasons at once. Bitcoin and Zcash are riding the debasement trade after Bessent’s pledge to spend up to a trillion dollars protecting the long end “damaged the credibility of the Fed”; meme coins are riding the rise of social trading; RWAs are exploding via Robinhood chain, with Vlad publicly brawling with AMC’s CEO over tokenized stocks.
- Guest Se, FOMO co-founder, lays out his core thesis: “everything is trading attention whether it’s on a micro or macro scale.” His own example: going all-in on HOOD because on-chain data gave him an edge on Robinhood chain revenue before the market’s attention caught up — the stock ripped ~18% the day before. Right now Robinhood chain memes are “a pretty free market” because bundling, wallet-sybil and supply-hiding tooling hasn’t arrived yet.
- FOMO’s endgame is not meme coins but “the highest intent social graph that will ever exist” — a social platform at Google or Facebook scale where the top accounts “are not producing content, but they’re producing trades.” As AI (roughly doubling in capability every quarter, per Se) commoditizes content, the scarce resource stops being attention and becomes capital at risk: “who is right publicly, who is staking dollars.” Creator rewards already paid out $4 million in two weeks, with the top earner making $300,000 — versus finance YouTube or the eight figures Se estimates Michael Burry or Citrini make on newsletters.
- Se’s growth data suggests the rally has legs: unlike the November and January spikes (10x in two days, then collapse), the last 60–90 days show gradual 5–10% daily growth, and referred users have fallen from ~60% to ~25% — signs of an organic, healthy graph. With Bitcoin around 80k, he thinks “most retail” won’t shift attention until all-time highs break, which could take six months to a year — meaning it’s still early.
- Avi’s post-interview caution: 94.4% of FOMO users have lost money, “an indication of what meme coins are” — gambling and lottery tickets — even as an AMC-linked coin ran from $100K to $100M market cap in five hours, something only crypto can do. MemeFi, where a stated mechanism directs 20% of volume or fees toward buying the underlying stock, is “way more real” than past memes but is still “the meme coin version of a DAT”; Avi says all such DATs except MicroStrategy — and even MicroStrategy — have failed pretty miserably.
- The tradeable structure call: buy leaders, not laggards — “don’t buy the laggards in this bull rally. Don’t worry about them. Don’t even think about them.” Beta trades like Trader Joe-off-Uniswap matter less because chains are abstracted away and usage of the underlying product is what matters; if your thesis is perps eating the world, buy Hyperliquid and Lighter, not a third derivative asset. Avi says Lighter is almost $5, while Se entered in the low ones and sold around $3-something. Think dot-com aftermath: Uber, not Lyft.
- GPT-6.0’s benchmark-crushing release (SanDisk +10%, Intel +4%) makes Avi nervous about the AI trade returning — a concentrated AI rally can coexist with crypto, but a broad-based melt-up “would be worse for crypto.” He’s long Intel (sees $140 by year-end) and back in Nvidia since Wednesday; if Bitcoin can “beat the Bart” through 80K, he sees 100K and possible all-time highs by year-end.
- Portfolio and the meta-lesson: Bitcoin, Zcash, biotech (ARKG, XBI), Intel, Nvidia — a book he thinks can do 50–100% in six months — while Robinhood (bought at 92, now 123) remains his “multi-bagger” as “the only financial institution that is taking crypto seriously.” Watch perception over data: Pew shows Americans souring on a “rip-roaring” economy, which makes him nervous about a short-lived dip into the midterms.